WSP Re-Districting Analysis: Congressional Districts

April 14, 2011 5 Comments

We’ve been meaning to get this post up for the last few days but, sadly, we do actually have real jobs.  We’re working on doing a full analysis on the implications of re-districting and will start with the Congressional Districts.  

The 1st Congressional District remains a safe Democrat seat for Pete Visclosky to sit in until he dies if he so chooses.  He is unlikely to have any serious opposition in either the Primary or General Elections.  In fact, its biggest impact is on the 2nd Congressional District.

The 2nd Congressional District was molded as a district for Jackie Walorksi.  The district has taken out the highly Democratic Michigan City and given it to the 1st District while Howard County and the Democrat area of Kokomo were drawn out completely. They also added some nice Republican spots in Elkhart and Kosciusko counties and all of Miami County. 

Will Jackie have a primary?  We’re hearing yes but we highly doubt anyone is going to beat her.  She is known as a tough campaigner and is putting together a campaign team that is already working with the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee.  We strongly believe Congressman Donnelly was already focused on running for U.S. Senate in 2012 and this district makes that more likely.  We’re not sure who the Democrats have warming up on the bench. 

The 3rd Congressional District, much like the 1st, has a bigger impact on the 2nd than on itself.  Several key Republican areas were sliced out of the 3rd and given to the 2nd.  Regardless, it looks to be a fairly safe Republican district provided Congressman Stutzman does not make any major mistakes.

In the 4th Congressional District, we have a very nice Republican map.  Unfortunately for Congressman Todd Rokita, it does not include his home. This is not an issue as we have heard for some time that Rokita planned to move to Hendricks County.  It is a good thing since Rokita has about as many friends in the Legislature as we have in the Kennedy for Mayor HQ.  The Congressman made a lot of enemies by putting out his own re-districting plan last year when he was Secretary of State.  No better way to piss off the legislature than messing with the maps.  Ironic that they used re-districting as a way to get back at him, huh?

The 5th District is interesting but, as usual, it is due to Primary implications rather than General election races.  Congressman Dan Burton has a good district for the General but not so much for the Primary.  The northern portion of the old 5th is where Burton got his votes and it was put in the 3rd District.  If you think his dustup with Messer was close in 2010, check out the numbers if this had been the district.  The race would have come down to a few hundred votes rather than a few thousand.  Burton was able to use his friends in the legislature to push Shelby County, Messer’s home county, out of the 5th.  David McIntosh, however, is based in Madison County and that is in the 5th District.  Will McIntosh take Burton out?  God, we hope so because someone should. 

The 6th district looks to be fairly Republican but not so Republican that a poorly run race would be guaranteed victory.  Congressman Mike Pence is all but declared to run for Governor.  We expect he will announce sometime after the legislative session ends so he can start fundraising.  Luke Messer is said to be taking a close look at the district and we expect he will run.  McIntosh is said to be interested as well.  While McIntosh is registered in Madison County, the new 6th has several of the counties he used to represent. We’re not all that enthused about a McIntosh return to Indiana…unless it is to finally rid our delegation of Dan Burton.  There are a few other names being tossed around but none that should cause too much of an issue if Messer goes all in.

The new 7th District is a bit of a mystery.  Democrats say it is solidly Democrat while the Republicans seem to be split.  We’ve heard some say it is a lock for the Democrats and some who are hopeful that the addition of the Republican Southside will make the district competitive.  Either way, we think you’ll see a much more energized race there in 2012 than usual.  Congressman Carson will crush any opponent in the Primary and the General could be interesting if the Republicans can get a legitimate candidate.  Marvin Scott, this is not a request for you to throw your hat in.  The likelihood of getting a strong Republican candidate could be impacted by the 2011 Mayor’s race.

The 8th District lost some key Republican areas to the 4th and 9th Congressional districts and may well become the Bloody Eighth of  the past. Congressman Bucshon should be safe in the Primary election.  The General will really depend on who the Democrats can get to run.  Democrats appear to be courting Brad Ellsworth for a curtain call but we don’t see it happening.  He just got a great gig  and he lost his home congressional district to Coats in his U.S. Senate bid.  If John Gregg is the Democrat Governor candidate, it could make things interesting in the 8th  (and 9th as well) but we still don’t think the Democrats have a candidate to beat Congressman Bucshon.

Finally, the 9th District looks a bit better than it use to for Congressman Todd Young.  Since this district has been tossed back and forth between the two parties like a hot potato, it is not surprising that Republicans decided to clean it up some.  The district is more Republican than in the past and it looks much more favorable for Young to fend of Primary challengers.  Many of the counties drawn out were won by his 2010 Primary opponents. The district does still include Jackson County where former Congressman Baron Hill resides.  We would think Hill has had enough of fighting for this district for a decade but you never know.  We would say the 9th is more Republican than before but by no means a lock.

Filed under 2011, 2012, Baron Hill, Brad Ellsworth, Congress, Congressman Andre Carson, Congressman Joe Donnelly, Congressman Mike Pence, Democratic Party, Indiana Legislature, Jackie Walorski, John Gregg, Luke Messer, Mayor Greg Ballard, Melina Kennedy, Politics, Republican Party, Senator Dan Coats

Local Campaign Finance Reports: Ballard vs. Kennedy

April 14, 2011 4 Comments

Campaign finance reports for local races are due this Friday and we, along with a few other bloggers, are waiting with bated breath.

We are expecting a big report from Melina Kennedy this quarter.  After all, she raised nearly $900,000 last year when she was working at Baker & Daniels.  Since she is campaigning full-time now, we would guess she will raise a substantial amount of money and should pull even with Mayor Ballard’s fundraising this quarter. 

Since Kennedy has a primary where she will need to spend some money, she needs a big quarter to not end the primary with a substantial cash deficit.  We’ve also heard she has been aggressively pursuing Ballard donors from last year.

For Mayor Ballard, we aren’t so sure what amount he will post.  He already has a cash advantage and will maintain that even with a strong quarter from Kennedy.  There also seems to be some debate over how much Ballard raised at a large event held at the J.W. Marriott.

Indianapolis Times has posted in the past that they don’t believe Mayor Greg Ballard’s campaign brought in $500,000 at the event.  In fact, Terry said they raised “less than half  of the money that was anticipated.”   We’re going to guess they don’t have a great source since Ballard supporters are not exactly clamoring to talk to Terry Burns or any of the other bloggers (Sorry Paul and Gary!) who claim to have insight into the Ballard Re-Elect Team.

Then yesterday, Burns posted that the Mayor raised $500,000 at the J.W. event and, in order to have a successful fundraising quarter, he needs to have raised another $500,000 for a total of $1 million.  Which one is it, Terry?  Did he raise the $500,000 or not? We don’t claim to know but we try to not give completely conflicting “facts”.

We also aren’t sure why Terry thinks the Mayor will raise $1 million this quarter.  That is more than Ballard raised all last year.  It is crazy to think he will raise that much in one quarter so far off from the election. 

Another thing to file away in your “Things that Make You Go Hmmm” folder is the strange highlight in Burns’ post.  Looks to us like maybe someone (READ:  the Kennedy Campaign Staff) was making some edits to the post. 

Between those two things, we’re guessing the Kennedy Campaign is trying to play the expectations game.  We’ll find out tomorrow if they have a reason to be.

Filed under 2011, Mayor Greg Ballard, Melina Kennedy

Amateur Hour: Kennedy Campaign Violates Federal Copyright Law, Forced to Pull Negative Web Ad

April 11, 2011 Leave a comment

You may or may not have noticed last week that the Kennedy campaign launched an attack ad on the interwebs on Mayor Greg Ballard. 

The ad was regarding job commitment numbers released by the Ballard administration and used portions of the RTV6 ”news” report from Kara Kenney.  The campaign publicized the web ad by advertising on several news websites including the IndyStar, Indianapolis Business Journal and Jim Shella’s political blog.

Not surprisingly, RTV6 told the Kennedy campaign to pull the web ad.  This is Campaign 101 so we are really suprised the campaign made the mistake.  Even worse, their candidate is a LAWYER.  Now we know it was made blatantly obvious in the 2006 Prosecutors race that Melina Kennedy has absolutely no courtroom experience but that doesn’t mean she doesn’t have a clue about the law.  This incident, on the other hand, seems to indicate that she doesn’t.

Add this to the fact that the Kennedy campaign has now officially gone negative in April, more than seven months before the election, and we’re declaring it amateur hour over at Kennedy campaign headquarters.

Filed under 2011, City Government, Mayor Greg Ballard, Melina Kennedy, Politics

Kennedy Attacks Ballard on Job Commitments; MCRCC Hits Back

March 29, 2011 6 Comments

Yesterday, Melina Kennedy decided it was a good idea to go after Mayor Greg Ballard on his job commitment numbers in an email and a press release.  We cannot say we are surprised. 

While we agree with Gary Welsh at Advance Indiana that Kennedy has completely struck out on her first two attacks on Mayor Ballard, we think she simply has got to find a way to discredit his jobs numbers. 

Think about it.  You are Melina Kennedy.  You were Deputy Mayor in charge of economic development and you tout it as a major part of why you are best equipped to be Mayor.  But, you have a problem with some numbers.  Ballard created more jobs in 2010 than you were able to in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 COMBINED. You’ve got to make those numbers irrelevant or at least muddy the waters. 

Unfortunately for Kennedy, it doesn’t look like the Ballard crew plans on letting that happen anytime soon. 

Marion County Republican Chairman Kyle Walker hit back in the below email and, we have to say, it made us wonder if the Kennedy campaign needs someone to donate a subscription to the Indianapolis Business Journal.

Friends,

Melina Kennedy’s campaign just sunk to a new low. Kennedy sent an email today that included lies about Mayor Ballard’s record on job creation. Additionally, Kennedy’s email demonstrates that she is either misrepresenting the Ballard administration’s record or Kennedy doesn’t understand the city’s economic development work (which she touts she did for several years).

We all know why Melina Kennedy is launching false attacks…because Mayor Ballard’s administration has produced a record number of job commitments for the city. In 2010, Indianapolis received commitments for 8,702 new jobs and $934 million in capital investment – both are record highs. And it is more job commitments than Melina Kennedy’s economic development efforts yielded in 2003, 2004 and 2005 combined!

As the Indianapolis Business Journal noted, “The city’s current procedures for reporting job commitments and tracking them are essentially the same as they were during Democratic Mayor Bart Peterson’s administration, according to two Peterson-era economic development officials.”

Melina Kennedy has previously promoted her “record” of economic development, compiled the same way by both administrations, but now she doesn’t want to compare numbers.

Melina Kennedy’s email claims “only about 20 percent of Ballard’s “new jobs” are solid commitments.” That is simply not true!  According to the Indianapolis Business Journal, “City records of tax-abated jobs show, in 2009, about 82 percent of the job commitments expected in that year came to fruition. That figure was 84 percent in 2008, and 64 percent in 2007.  The state’s numbers show an average of 87 percent of jobs came to fruition from 2005 to 2009.”

Melina Kennedy also tries to claim that the Ballard administration isn’t making information public. As the Indianapolis Business Journal article indicates,

“Companies that get local tax abatements-temporary relief from the taxes paid on new development-must file annual paperwork with the city to report their progress in bringing promised jobs or risk losing their city money. Those receiving other public incentives also are tracked by the city to ensure compliance. Those reports are public.”

Here are some more facts reported by the Indianapolis Business Journal:

“Of the 8,702 jobs committed, 4,403 were associated with companies receiving local public incentives, such as tax abatements or infrastructure upgrades. Other companies are offered local incentives but accept only state tax credits; they account for 2,600 of the jobs.

Still others get no public dollars but accept Develop Indy’s help in recruiting employees or selecting a site. Those companies committed to 764 jobs on the city’s list.

A handful of other companies on the list-representing 935 of the job commitments-remain confidential because they have not yet publicly disclosed their move or expansion plans.”

Since competing apples to apples with Mayor Ballard’s job creation record doesn’t bode well for Melina Kennedy, she’s trying to change the rules of the game. Don’t let her! Arm your friends with the facts by forwarding this email today.

Sincerely,

Kyle Walker
Chairman
Marion County Republican Party

Filed under 2011, Kyle Walker, Mayor Greg Ballard, Melina Kennedy

Mayor Ballard Writes the Post We Didn’t

March 28, 2011 7 Comments

A few weeks ago, Melina Kennedy released her plan to combat illegal guns. 

We did not write on it since we were on hiatus and we thought the plan was a lot of political talk that sounds good but does not really accomplish anything.  You can judge for yourself by reading it.

Mayor Ballard had an op-ed printed in today’s IndyStar that addresses the issues we saw in the plan so we aren’t going to re-create the wheel.

Public safety is Job One. I ran on that platform in 2007, and I devote constant attention to making our streets safer. One of our first actions was to return responsibility for the police department to the mayor. We are transforming the training of our police officers and investing in new equipment, vehicles and technology. We are aggressively pursuing that small group of criminals who cause most of the problems.

Our efforts to increase safety are working. Last year, the number of homicides dropped to the lowest level since 1995; and we are on pace to have even fewer homicides this year. Violent crime is lower. Overall crime is lower. You are safer on the streets of Indianapolis. We are making dramatic improvements.

Recently the issue of illegally possessed guns has been a topic of discussion in The Indianapolis Star. Some people think the answer lies with amnesty for criminals, signing a national gun control petition and closing the so-called “gun show loophole.” Others have suggested the creation of a special unit within the Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department tasked with addressing illegal guns.

Let me be clear. I do not support amnesty programs for gang members, drug dealers or people who use guns in the commission of a crime. I will not sign a national gun control petition, especially one that does not remove a single illegally possessed gun from our streets. Creating a special police unit might score political points, but it detracts from the real police work being done, work that seized nearly 2,000 illegally possessed guns last year.

We focus on tactics that work and make our streets safer. IMPD special units aggressively and relentlessly focus on tracking down gang members and drug pushers, the two groups using guns to commit crimes in Indianapolis. Since I took office, we have made nearly 5,000 drug arrests, executed more than 700 search warrants, seized more than $19 million in drug money, and taken nearly 690 pounds of cocaine, 16,200 pounds of marijuana, and 26,000 grams of heroin off the streets.

When it comes to the so-called “gun show loophole,” let’s focus on the facts. Current law requires all professional gun dealers to run a background check prior to sale, regardless of whether that sale is taking place in a retail store or a gun show. According to the FBI, 0.7 percent of criminals purchased their weapons at gun shows. Most criminals purchase their guns from other criminals on the streets or they steal them. That’s where IMPD is focused.

Education and community partnership are also keys to helping address this problem. I want to praise Sheriff John Layton for working to distribute gun locks for legally possessed firearms. I also want to thank the many community groups and local faith-based organizations working to increase awareness of gun safety and encourage people to turn in illegally possessed or unwanted firearms.

We are addressing the real issue with real actions. It is an issue we take to heart because we have witnessed senseless tragedies in our community and lost one of our own as a result of illegally possessed firearms. But, a national petition, amnesty programs and more government bureaucracy are not the answer. Continuing the aggressive and relentless work of our hardworking men and women of IMPD, our drug and gang task forces and our county, state and federal partners are.

Ballard is mayor of Indianapolis.

Filed under 2011, City Government, IMPD, Mayor Greg Ballard, Melina Kennedy

AFSCME Unions Endorse Ballard over Kennedy

March 9, 2011 9 Comments

Yesterday afternoon, Mayor Greg Ballard was endorsed by all four local AFSCME unions.  These four unions represent all non-uniform city union employees.  Union leaders say this is the first time that all the local unions have endorsed one candidate for Mayor.

A few of the local union presidents were on Abdul’s radio show this morning and they said it boils down to Mayor Greg Ballard, the things he has done for employees and the way he has approached them.  Ballard gave them a seat at the table when making decisions about equipment upgrades like the new snow plows and both sides have worked together to address issues.

This is a blow to the Kennedy campaign and we cannot imagine they were expecting it.  As much as it is expected for Melina Kennedy to get an endorsement from EMILY’s List, it is also expected that the Democrat nominee will receive the AFSCME endorsement or at least have enough pull to keep an endorsement from happening before the Democratic primary is even over.

Over at Indy Democrat, Jon Easter was unclear on how Ballard could have all the local union endorsements when Melina Kennedy has posted on her website and in a release that she received the endorsement of  AFSCME Local 1887 which represented the Parks employees.  

Kennedy received that endorsement in November of 2009.  AFSCME Local 1887 has since been rolled into another AFSCME local union.  This leads us to ask two questions.  First, why would a union endorse a candidate a full two years before their election?  We’re going to guess it is because the union president knew they were being combined with the another union that would not be supporting Kennedy. 

And the second question is why does Melina Kennedy have the endorsement of union that does not exist on her website still?

Filed under 2011, City Government, Mayor Greg Ballard, Melina Kennedy, Politics

Melina Gets Rocked on Rocky Ripple

March 1, 2011 11 Comments

You may have heard last week that several citizens in the Rocky Ripple and Butler-Tarkington areas were less than thrilled with the floor protection plan proposed by the U.S. Army Corps.  The plan calls for a floodwall along the Central Canal which residents argue the 6 foot floodwall would cut off their view of the canal and are understandably upset. 

Melina Kennedy decided this could be a good opportunity for her campaign and got Democratic At Large City-County Council candidate John Barth (who is also a former president of the Butler-Tarkington Neighborhood Association) to stage a little press conference calling on the Mayor to work with the feds to put the plan on hold.  Unfortunately, she made a mistake and did not read up on the history of the issue. 

The Marion County Republican Party sent out the following e-mail yesterday:

Dear Marion County Republicans,

As I’ve mentioned to you before, there are sure to be many instances of the Democrats looking to score political points by revising history.  A blatant attempt at this occurred late last week with one of the Democrat Mayoral candidates, Melina Kennedy.  She held a press conference on Friday taking issue with Mayor Greg Ballard for a plan by the City of Indianapolis and the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers to construct a flood wall along the White River; a plan that was developed while Melina Kennedy was Deputy Mayor for Bart Peterson.  

It’s interesting that Melina Kennedy is jumping in front of cameras now when she did nothing to help those residents when she was in an influential position in the Peterson administration.  The history of the Rocky Ripple situation dates back to the 1990′s when the town opted out of the flood wall plan.  Years later, during the Peterson-Kennedy administration, Rocky Ripple asked to be included back in. 

Melina Kennedy often portrays her role with Mayor Peterson as a neighborhood advocate, but last week she said we “just recently learned that a major flood wall will be constructed…” and “there was very little understanding and notice provided to the neighborhoods to share their input about this concern.”  Wasn’t she fighting for neighborhoods when she was Deputy Mayor? 

The vast majority of the planning and decisions on the project were made during the Peterson-Kennedy administration.  And it was in 2004 when the Town of Rocky Ripple’s request for inclusion on the flood wall was denied.  You can click here to view the City correspondence from 2004 when the Peterson-Kennedy administration denied Rocky Ripple’s request. 

Last week, I released the following statement to the media regarding Kennedy’s comments, “This is a desperate attempt by Melina Kennedy to revise history and pander for votes. The fact is Melina Kennedy was the Deputy Mayor during the time the flood wall plan was developed and she did nothing about it.” 

Mayor Ballard’s administration is currently reviewing this project, and has made a plea to the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers to extend the deadline for public comment on behalf of Rocky Ripple and surrounding neighborhoods. 

I wanted you to be armed with this information so you can help us set the record straight.

Sincerely,

Kyle Walker
Chairman
Marion County Republican Party

Ouch.  As it turns out , the City is working with the community to see what can be done about the situation though cautioning that they will have to consider the amount of time a change of plan will set the project back and that it will also likely increase the cost.

Interestingly enough, there was a community meeting with over 300 people in attendance and staff from Department of Public Works to discuss the plan and the options last night at the Riviera Club.  We’re told Melina Kennedy did not attend but did send a staffer to the meeting who was promptly booed for being political. 

Guess Melina figured out it is only fun to be in front of the cameras before everyone figures out you might have something to do with the problem.

Filed under 2011, Bart Peterson, City Government, Mayor Greg Ballard, Melina Kennedy, Politics

Melina Kennedy’s Jobs Plan

February 28, 2011 11 Comments

Last week, Mayor Greg Ballard gave his State of the City address.  If you missed it, you can watch the speech here.  You can also read the live coverage of the speech  and get the political highlights and debates from the following twitter accounts: the Ballard Campaign, Kyle Walker (GOP Chair), Adam Kirsch (Executive Director)/Marion County Democrats and Melina Kennedy’s campaign account. You’ll notice that Kennedy’s campaign seemed to let the Marion County Democrats handle response on Twitter.

After the speech, Melina Kennedy released a counter video. You can watch it here.  The video starts out with the type of rhetoric you would expect to hear.  The speech was out of touch, we need to do more–the typical Kennedy talking points to this point.  Then, in a move that frankly surprised us, she launched into her jobs plan. We did not expect this since it is a bit early in the season to start throwing plans around and jobs should be one of the key issues of the campaign.  Once she went through her points, it was pretty clear to us that the Kennedy crew should have waited until they had a better formulated plan and message.  Here is what Kennedy suggested in her plan:

  1. Center job creation on the areas of our economy with the most potential for growth: local small businesses.
  2. Get government out-of-the-way by cutting bureaucracy and red tape.
  3. Link our small businesses with the engines of innovation:  local colleges and universities.

That is essentially the bullet points of Melina Kennedy’s jobs plan. We cannot say we are surprised that the Ballard administration created more jobs job commitments in 2010 than in the years Kennedy was Deputy Mayor and Director of Economic Director if this is the type of plan she was able to muster.  The first point really has no action attached to it.  What is going to be done to focus job creation on small business?  And how does that not conflict with the second point of getting government out-of-the-way if part of your plan is to have government focus on job creation?  That said, normally we would have just let it go if the rest of the plan was solid.

The second point was really Kennedy’s attempt to hit Ballard on fee increases.  First off, we would say that this is the pot calling the kettle black. The Peterson administration raised taxes 19 times and borrowed $100 million to supplement budget shortfalls.  Like kids in a candy store, they spent the $100 million in three years and now taxpayers will be paying it off for the next 20 years. The fees Kennedy references had not been increased in Indianapolis since 1979.  From 1979 to 2010, the cumulative inflation is 222.43%.  It seems as though some fee levels would need to increase eventually to keep up with costs. The shortfalls from these fees that had not been increased are a part of the budget deficits the City was facing.  

So what exactly does Kennedy think should be done differently?  Does she think the City should continue to take on the extra costs that the fee levels do not support?  Should the City continue to borrow money and pass on the budget shortfalls to future generations?  Does she think that Mayor Ballard should have just followed the path of political expediency and not increased any fees so we could go 40 years instead of 30 years without increasing fees?  Melina Kennedy loves to tout that she is a small business owner.  Would she go 30 years without increasing prices in her business?  We think not. 

And then we come to the third point from Kennedy:  have small businesses work with local colleges and universities.  Sounds great.  Are they not already?  If not, how are you going to make that happen?  Is this part of government staying out-of-the-way again?  But what really got us was the complete fluff that accompanied this part of the video.  Kennedy says,

Our local colleges and universities are doing amazing research that will one day crack cancer’s tragic code or cure Alzheimer’s. Reasearch that will one day make our homes and cars more sustainable or make gas and electricity more affordable. And when those days come, and they will, I want to make sure our local businesses have partnered with our universities and are ready to take these ideas to the world market.

Wow.  Call us crazy but we think Lilly is probably doing their best to “crack cancer’s tragic code or cure Alzheimer’s” but this goes back to our earlier point that this is not a plan to actually create jobs.  This is political fluff that is put out by a campaign to sound like they have ideas. 

If this is the best Kennedy could come up with on what is supposed to be her strongest issue then she should re-think putting out plans at all.

Filed under 2011, City Government, Mayor Greg Ballard, Melina Kennedy, Politics

Howey’s Take on the Indianapolis Mayor’s Race

February 28, 2011 11 Comments

Last week, Brian Howey at the Howey Political Report gave us his initial take on the Indianapolis Mayor’s Race putting the status as “Leans Ballard.”  Here are some of his observations: 

A Tarrance Group Poll in January gave Ballard a 55-37 percent lead and 71 percent approval. City sources tell HPI that Kennedy had a pollster in the field last week and it may be telling that there was no public release of numbers.

Ballard has kept his budgets out of crisis despite the property tax caps. And he’s got a lot of money to pump into vote-swaying infrastructure with the water utility sale. Public safety is a problem for Ballard and Kennedy is sure to exploit that. Both Ballard and Ken­nedy will be trading shots when it comes to jobs and public safety. Both can pull up “facts” to bolster their arguments. The unknown at this point is what happens between now the November election?

Cities are organic things and a million things can go wrong. But Ballard is not your typi­cal mayor – he comes off as apolitical. In our dealings with residents, there isn’t nearly the polarizing thoughts expressed about him as we’ve seen with Mayors Goldsmith and Peterson. Ballard appears to be entering this election in a best case scenario mode. How he runs his campaign could determine whether he gets a second term.

Abdul also indicated he heard Kennedy was in the field and the results showed her down double digits to Mayor Ballard.

Filed under 2011, City Government, Mayor Greg Ballard, Melina Kennedy

You Asked, We Answer: What does the Dem walkout mean to local 2011 elections?

February 24, 2011 9 Comments

We have had a few comments asking our opinion on what the effect the Democrat walkouts over at the Statehouse will have on local races here in Marion County. 

At Ogden on Politics, Paul says, “You betcha.”  He argues that these issues will motivate the Democrat base and predicts Mayor Greg Ballard will lose by more than ten percent.  To that, we ask if he is a part of the marijuana legalization study the State Senate just passed.  We’re not saying it is crazy to predict a victory by either candidate–everyone has the right to their opinion.  We’re saying a ten percent victory for either side is a bit over the top.  As an aside, Paul said, “Opinion polls do not measure the intensity of one’s views.”  That is incorrect.  Nearly every poll we’ve ever seen has an intensity question.  Not all do but most that are done by reputable pollsters include an intensity question.

Over at Indy Democrat, Jon Easter says yes. He makes a valid argument that some of the controversial issues being brought up over at the Statehouse could put local officials in a tough spot.  Honestly, we think that it is all a matter of how the issues are addressed.  That said, those issues are not what the walkout is centered on.  We believe the walkout is going to overshadow a lot of those issues at this point and become the issue.   And we believe the House Democrats overplayed their hand. We said it yesterday but Capitol & Washington referenced a poll saying that 67% of Americans disapprove of the walkouts like in Wisconsin.  That isn’t an Indiana only poll but it shows a general trend.

Our view is that they overplayed their hand and it will end up being a negative for Democrats in the Statehouse.  We really aren’t sure that it is going to have any effect on local candidates.  We did read on IBJ reporter Francesca Jarosz’s twitter that Democrats plan to skip the State of the City address as a show of opposition.  If local Democrats start taking their cues from the Statehouse then this trend could definitely have an effect on the upcoming elections.  Voters typically expect legislators to show up and vote.  They do not always have to agree with the vote but just not voting doesn’t seem to be acceptable.  And there is always a danger for any candidate to get on the wrong side of an issue and have a problem–but that is something a candidate can control or at least minimize the damage.  

But to say you know definitely how any of this will actually play out and affect elections while we are still in the middle of it is a bit of a stretch.  As Michael Douglas says in The American President, ” I drop five points when Wisconsin doesn’t make the Rose Bowl.”  Our point?  Voters are unpredictable and this situation is volatile.  Who knows what is going to happen.

Filed under 2011, Democratic Party, Indiana Legislature, Indianapolis City-County Council, Mayor Greg Ballard, Politics

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