As the Candidates File: 6th Congressional District

The filing continues and so does the fun.

In the 6th Congressional District, we have reports up from Don Bates, Travis Hankins and Luke Messer. Here are the breakdowns.

Bates: $55,245 Raised, $53,197 Cash on Hand
Hankins: $33,905 Raised, $61,277 Cash on Hand
Messer: $200,539 Raised, $185,148 Cash on Hand

Looks like Luke Messer has been busy raising a boat load of money though we can’t say we are surprised. Messer has some big backers and showed he can raise money in the 5th District race last year.

The fact that Bates only outraised Hankins by $20,000 cannot make him happy. Bates ran for U.S. Senate in 2010 while Hankins ran in the 9th District with a more grassroots focused campaign. That said, Hankins spent more than he raised this quarter with his cash on hand number dropping from $70,343 at the start of the period to around $61,000 this quarter.

If money talks, Messer is sending a message.

Random Updates on 2012 Races

This week had a few interesting tidbits on the upcoming 2012 campaigns.

Mike Pence released what his team is calling his first campaign video.  We’d say it is the second video since he announced with a video but we digress.  The video is a pretty typical bio spot and appears to have been shot during his Columbus campaign kick-off.  Also, it has been reported that Pence has raised $300,000 from major donors alone since making his campaign official.  The Gregg campaign said they are actively fundraising but didn’t report a number for comparison.  This is a big boost for Team Pence and should start the freight train rolling.  Pence isn’t unbeatable yet–but he is putting himself in strong position to make himself unbeatable.

The Indiana Senate race appears to be much of the same with a few blips about poor staff decisions on the Mourdock campaign.  It seems they need some classes on how not to deal with people harassing your candidate.  Rule #1:  Don’t touch anyone or their camera.  That said, to say that the blogger was assaulted is a stretch and this is really a non-story in the grand scheme of things. 

We are far more interested in the campaign finance reports that will come out in a month.  We’ll be watching to see if Mourdock has brought in the national donor groups and boosted his fundraising.  If he hasn’t, it is bad news for the Mourdock crew.

In a somewhat related note, there was a poll going around northeast Indiana with a ballot match-up between Lugar, McIntosh and Mourdock.  McIntosh has been rumored to be considering the 5th and 6th Congressional Districts and the poll led many to believe he was also considering the U.S. Senate Primary.  McIntosh cleared it up yesterday with a phone call to Jim Shella saying he is only considering the 5th Congressional District.  Looks like Congressman Burton continues to have a target on his back.

Finally, the 6th Congressional District is starting to become a little clearer.  McIntosh indicated he is no longer looking at the district.  Matt Strittmatter, former Wayne County Sheriff, got out of the race and has backed Luke Messer.  That leaves the 6th with Messer, Don Bates and Travis Hankins.  We’ll be keeping an eye on this one for more developments.

 

Congressional Races Heating Up

Now that we have that little announcement about the Governor’s race out of the way, the Congressional races decided they wanted in on the fun.

Jim Shella and Matt Tully have both reported that Luke Messer issued a statement following Mike Pence’s announcement for Governor. Shella indicates Messer will hold a formal announcement in the next few weeks. Messer is from Shelby County and was drawn into the 6th.   We have heard of a few other people being interested, including Wayne County Sheriff Matt Strittmatter.  That said, we would expect to see some pretty big hitters come out behind Messer after an impressive effort in the 5th Congressional District against Dan Burton.

Another interesting development  just reported by Hoosier Access is that Congressman Marlin Stutzman may be behind the push for a primary challenger to Jackie Walorski in the 2nd District.  State Senator Carlin Yoder is speculated to be weighing a challenge to Walorski but our friends at Hoosier Access hear that rumor is being pushed by Stutzman and his staff and is not based on actual actions by Yoder.  We’re unsure why Stutzman would want to wade into this since so much effort was put into drawing a Republican district and Walorski is rumored to already be working with the NRCC on her race. 

We’re not sure if there is some kind of a feud we do not know about playing here.  We do know that Stutzman wanted to keep some of Elkhart County and it was given to Walorski.  Still, that seems like a small reason to jump into a race that should be an a quick and easy primary with a focus on the general election.

For the Democrats, all seems to be quiet at this point outside of the 8th District where Bucshon has two Democrats fighting it out in a primary for a chance to go against him in the fall.

WSP Re-Districting Analysis: Congressional Districts

We’ve been meaning to get this post up for the last few days but, sadly, we do actually have real jobs.  We’re working on doing a full analysis on the implications of re-districting and will start with the Congressional Districts.  

The 1st Congressional District remains a safe Democrat seat for Pete Visclosky to sit in until he dies if he so chooses.  He is unlikely to have any serious opposition in either the Primary or General Elections.  In fact, its biggest impact is on the 2nd Congressional District.

The 2nd Congressional District was molded as a district for Jackie Walorksi.  The district has taken out the highly Democratic Michigan City and given it to the 1st District while Howard County and the Democrat area of Kokomo were drawn out completely. They also added some nice Republican spots in Elkhart and Kosciusko counties and all of Miami County. 

Will Jackie have a primary?  We’re hearing yes but we highly doubt anyone is going to beat her.  She is known as a tough campaigner and is putting together a campaign team that is already working with the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee.  We strongly believe Congressman Donnelly was already focused on running for U.S. Senate in 2012 and this district makes that more likely.  We’re not sure who the Democrats have warming up on the bench. 

The 3rd Congressional District, much like the 1st, has a bigger impact on the 2nd than on itself.  Several key Republican areas were sliced out of the 3rd and given to the 2nd.  Regardless, it looks to be a fairly safe Republican district provided Congressman Stutzman does not make any major mistakes.

In the 4th Congressional District, we have a very nice Republican map.  Unfortunately for Congressman Todd Rokita, it does not include his home. This is not an issue as we have heard for some time that Rokita planned to move to Hendricks County.  It is a good thing since Rokita has about as many friends in the Legislature as we have in the Kennedy for Mayor HQ.  The Congressman made a lot of enemies by putting out his own re-districting plan last year when he was Secretary of State.  No better way to piss off the legislature than messing with the maps.  Ironic that they used re-districting as a way to get back at him, huh?

The 5th District is interesting but, as usual, it is due to Primary implications rather than General election races.  Congressman Dan Burton has a good district for the General but not so much for the Primary.  The northern portion of the old 5th is where Burton got his votes and it was put in the 3rd District.  If you think his dustup with Messer was close in 2010, check out the numbers if this had been the district.  The race would have come down to a few hundred votes rather than a few thousand.  Burton was able to use his friends in the legislature to push Shelby County, Messer’s home county, out of the 5th.  David McIntosh, however, is based in Madison County and that is in the 5th District.  Will McIntosh take Burton out?  God, we hope so because someone should. 

The 6th district looks to be fairly Republican but not so Republican that a poorly run race would be guaranteed victory.  Congressman Mike Pence is all but declared to run for Governor.  We expect he will announce sometime after the legislative session ends so he can start fundraising.  Luke Messer is said to be taking a close look at the district and we expect he will run.  McIntosh is said to be interested as well.  While McIntosh is registered in Madison County, the new 6th has several of the counties he used to represent. We’re not all that enthused about a McIntosh return to Indiana…unless it is to finally rid our delegation of Dan Burton.  There are a few other names being tossed around but none that should cause too much of an issue if Messer goes all in.

The new 7th District is a bit of a mystery.  Democrats say it is solidly Democrat while the Republicans seem to be split.  We’ve heard some say it is a lock for the Democrats and some who are hopeful that the addition of the Republican Southside will make the district competitive.  Either way, we think you’ll see a much more energized race there in 2012 than usual.  Congressman Carson will crush any opponent in the Primary and the General could be interesting if the Republicans can get a legitimate candidate.  Marvin Scott, this is not a request for you to throw your hat in.  The likelihood of getting a strong Republican candidate could be impacted by the 2011 Mayor’s race.

The 8th District lost some key Republican areas to the 4th and 9th Congressional districts and may well become the Bloody Eighth of  the past. Congressman Bucshon should be safe in the Primary election.  The General will really depend on who the Democrats can get to run.  Democrats appear to be courting Brad Ellsworth for a curtain call but we don’t see it happening.  He just got a great gig  and he lost his home congressional district to Coats in his U.S. Senate bid.  If John Gregg is the Democrat Governor candidate, it could make things interesting in the 8th  (and 9th as well) but we still don’t think the Democrats have a candidate to beat Congressman Bucshon.

Finally, the 9th District looks a bit better than it use to for Congressman Todd Young.  Since this district has been tossed back and forth between the two parties like a hot potato, it is not surprising that Republicans decided to clean it up some.  The district is more Republican than in the past and it looks much more favorable for Young to fend of Primary challengers.  Many of the counties drawn out were won by his 2010 Primary opponents. The district does still include Jackson County where former Congressman Baron Hill resides.  We would think Hill has had enough of fighting for this district for a decade but you never know.  We would say the 9th is more Republican than before but by no means a lock.

Welcome and a Shout Out to Capitol and Washington

You may or may not have noticed that there is a new blog on the street.  Well, really an old blog with some new faces.  Regardless, we are happy to have the company.

Capitol and Washington just started up today and will have a lot of the features the Frugal Hoosiers blog used to offer.  FH has been forwarding over to Aiming Higher and it looks as though a few of their contributors decided to start a new blog.  Mike O’Brien, Cam Savage and Trevor Foughty will all be writing for C&W and they’ve added Tony Samuel, Luke Messer, Anne Hathaway and Brian McGrath. 

It sounds like the Ocean’s 11 of Republican blogs to us.  We’ve added it to our links and highly suggest you click the “Add to Favorites” button.

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