What Does It All Mean: Marion County Primary Election Results
May 9, 2011 5 Comments
While some over at Indianapolis Times spent their Friday night writing a blog post on the Marion County Primary Election Results and criticizing us for not blogging on them yet, we took our time writing this post.
After a few days of reflection, here is what we are taking away from the Primary Election: Melina Kennedy is the Democrat nominee and will face Greg Ballard in the fall. The Marion County slates won.
Simple? Yes. The only actual facts you get from a primary election? Yes again.
Did the Democrats have more votes? Sure. They had a contested race at the top of the ticket. They also had a 20,000 straight ticket vote advantage in the last General Election. From that perspective, they may have had more votes but their turnout was lower than it seems.
Did Melina Kennedy get the majority of the votes in her 3-way race? Yes. But 23% of her party voted for someone else. Are they going to end up voting for her in the fall? Probably. Will they definitely go vote? Will they be motivated to work for her? Who knows.
A lot of people will try to draw conclusions on how the Primary results will impact the General Elections or what clues it gives us as to what will happen in the fall. There are a hundred different ways to run numbers and spin these results. Our guess is that people will continue to do it. But the fact is that we won’t know what clues these numbers gave to the outcome in the General Election until we know the outcome of the General Election.
The only thing we really know is this will be a hotly contested race and there is a lot to shake out over the next 6 months. On to the main event!