You Asked, We Answer: What does the Dem walkout mean to local 2011 elections?
February 24, 2011 9 Comments
We have had a few comments asking our opinion on what the effect the Democrat walkouts over at the Statehouse will have on local races here in Marion County.
At Ogden on Politics, Paul says, “You betcha.” He argues that these issues will motivate the Democrat base and predicts Mayor Greg Ballard will lose by more than ten percent. To that, we ask if he is a part of the marijuana legalization study the State Senate just passed. We’re not saying it is crazy to predict a victory by either candidate–everyone has the right to their opinion. We’re saying a ten percent victory for either side is a bit over the top. As an aside, Paul said, “Opinion polls do not measure the intensity of one’s views.” That is incorrect. Nearly every poll we’ve ever seen has an intensity question. Not all do but most that are done by reputable pollsters include an intensity question.
Over at Indy Democrat, Jon Easter says yes. He makes a valid argument that some of the controversial issues being brought up over at the Statehouse could put local officials in a tough spot. Honestly, we think that it is all a matter of how the issues are addressed. That said, those issues are not what the walkout is centered on. We believe the walkout is going to overshadow a lot of those issues at this point and become the issue. And we believe the House Democrats overplayed their hand. We said it yesterday but Capitol & Washington referenced a poll saying that 67% of Americans disapprove of the walkouts like in Wisconsin. That isn’t an Indiana only poll but it shows a general trend.
Our view is that they overplayed their hand and it will end up being a negative for Democrats in the Statehouse. We really aren’t sure that it is going to have any effect on local candidates. We did read on IBJ reporter Francesca Jarosz’s twitter that Democrats plan to skip the State of the City address as a show of opposition. If local Democrats start taking their cues from the Statehouse then this trend could definitely have an effect on the upcoming elections. Voters typically expect legislators to show up and vote. They do not always have to agree with the vote but just not voting doesn’t seem to be acceptable. And there is always a danger for any candidate to get on the wrong side of an issue and have a problem–but that is something a candidate can control or at least minimize the damage.
But to say you know definitely how any of this will actually play out and affect elections while we are still in the middle of it is a bit of a stretch. As Michael Douglas says in The American President, ” I drop five points when Wisconsin doesn’t make the Rose Bowl.” Our point? Voters are unpredictable and this situation is volatile. Who knows what is going to happen.
Interesting take on the subject. Thanks for your thoughts. I totaly disagree wiht Paul. I think that this will come back to bite them in many ways. The hard core Ds will of course raise their glasses to them.
If the Dem CCC members kip this evening address, it shoud be noted. It wil be interesting to see how man candidtaes will be there
It all comes down to the fact that if Ed can get out the black vote, the election will be very one sided. Ballards attempt to garner the black community support is crashing fast. However, the jury is still out on Melina and her abaility to get close to the “community” .To me she is just a female version of your boss. Her lawyer handlers run the show as do Ballards.
But this will be the most interesting race in a long time.
Robert, keep up the great work, I love your little barbs with Paul. It will be fun tonight hearing what you wrote for the Mayor. .
Wurst, we’re not Robert Vane but thanks for the props.
Republican councilors did not attend Peterson’s State of the City presentations so I am not sure that it is past practice or even an expectation that opposing councilors attend. This was more like a campaign rally. Amusing that pseudo Democrat Nytes is whining about Dem councilors not attending.
Thank you for the link and the mention.
No problem. We like including other views even if we don’t always agree.
When I wrote what you quoted, the walkout was new. It motivated the Democratic base and would help them the next election. A couple day walkout would have been quickly forgotten by the mainstream voters, while leaving the Ds motivated.
They’re letting it go on too long though and trying to hit too many issues. They’re creating a potential backlash. I doubt it will help Ballard enough in heavily Democratic Marion County. But it could play out in other races. I think they have time to call off the walkout and still not permanently tick people off. But they’re pushing the envelope.
WSP, please tell me the scenario by which Greg Ballard can win the election? What issues is he going to run on. Job promises? Crime? They’re all issues that help his opponent. Then you have the ACS deal, the Pacer $33.5 million gift, the horribly misplaced priorities of this administration. Then you have the fact Ballard has ticked off his Republican base by raising taxes and fees over 100 times and spending like a drunken sailor on insider deals.
There is a scenario by which Ballard can win. The Democratic nominee commits a felony too late to replace him/her on the ballot. Otherwise Ballard losing by 10 points is a charitable prediction.
The walkout motivated the Democratic base. It could have been a good thing for them. But they are letting
Your’re confused on the intensity issue regarding polling. Yes, they will put a “likely voter” screen on the good candidate polls to try to weed out the people not going to the polls. But that’s the only place where intensity is going to be factored in in a candidate poll.
As far as non-candidate polls go, while they might ask an intensity question, they don’t use the results of the inensity question to change the results. If 80% of the people want a waiting period to buy guns, but the 20% who don’t feel really strongly about the issue, the 80-20 breakdown isn’t changed by the pollster. It’s still 80-20.
Paul, campaigns don’t typically publish intensity numbers but they definitely include them in the polls. We aren’t talking about just determining likely voters but also their intensity level on issues as well. You would know these things if you had ever actually been involved in a campaign or Party operation.
Paul, Maybe you and Robert should debate, let Abdul be the MC.